CLARITY Act: 50-50 Odds, Senate Markup Expected This Week

The most consequential piece of crypto legislation in US history is entering its final window — and the odds are roughly even.

The CLARITY Act passed the House in July 2025 with strong bipartisan support (294-134). It has been stalled in the Senate Banking Committee since January over three unresolved issues: stablecoin yield language, DeFi provisions, and securing all Republican committee votes. A markup hearing is expected to be announced this week.

Galaxy Research, which spent last week in Washington meeting with Senate members and administration officials, puts the odds of enactment in 2026 at roughly 50-50. The bill must still clear a 60-vote Senate floor threshold, be reconciled between the Banking and Agriculture Committee versions, and be reconciled with the House-passed bill — all before a rapidly shrinking legislative calendar runs out. Senator Lummis has warned that failure this year could delay market structure legislation until 2030.

The stablecoin yield compromise brokered on March 20 — banning yield paid solely for holding, while permitting activity-based rewards tied to payments and transfers — appears durable. Coinbase reversed its initial objection on April 10 after Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly called for markup.

For global operators, the outcome of CLARITY will determine whether the US becomes a structured, regulated market or remains a jurisdiction to route around.

**Source:** Galaxy Research, April 22, 2026 — https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/clarity-act-update-final-push